So, it’s been a long time since I’ve posted anything on this blog. But Gizmodo, a wonderful source of inspiration, has once again made me want to express my opinion on a topic I hold close to my heart… 3DTV. And yes, I do realize that my unhealthy obsession with the topic does make me a geek.
Anyway, Gizmodo published a story called ‘Why 3D Will Never Work‘ and they explain that according to Roger Ebert, an acclaimed critic (and disliker of 3DTV), evolution is to blame for 3DTV’s eventual failure. While I can see his point, I think that 3DTV will fail much before we all even realize that evolution is against 3DTV.
My view is that what will really kill 3DTV in the more immediate future is the fact that these TVs are too expensive for the ‘Average Joe’ enthusiasts to buy – think about someone you know who is always eager to buy the newest thing (but not early enough that it would make them an early adopter, so to speak). The price of a 3DTV is simply not worth the minimal ‘coolness’ factor that they’ll gain from it.
My point is that even without plenty of 3D content, if 3DTVs cost as much as an HDTV, I bet that many people would buy them (knowing they’re fairly useless) just to get a leg up on the Joneses. This takes into account the American mentality of always having the newest and the best – remember that the US is still the biggest market for electronics.If 3DTV were to succeed in this market, it would more than likely have a very good fighting chance around the world.
With that adoption scenario in mind: as a result of the price drop in 3DTVs and its wider adoption, networks would start bringing in the content, and then people who bought a 3DTV would see that watching the news or Sex and the City and Two and a Half Men in 3D is pointless (who wants to get that close to Charlie Sheen nowadays?). This is the point when viewers and networks would come to a collective realization that the only programs worth watching in 3D are movies, certain documentaries and sports. So those who bought a 3DTV would use the power of word-of-mouth to say so to friends, family and colleagues – and word-of-mouth spreads like wildfire. At the suggestion of those they know and trust, people would spend their hard earned money in technologies that would give them more bang for their buck… like an iPad, which is much easier to show off at Starbucks anyway.
This will drive down 3DTV sales, and networks will cease to invest in 3D content. So before evolution even really comes into play, 3DTV will already have died, because people will have long ago realized that its use is not in the home. 3D movies and sport events will exist and thrive, but because it’s a fun, occasional thing that requires minimum investment (the price of a ticket), versus the price of a full 3DTV.
